Crude Oil Dips $2/Barrel as Trump Declares Israel‑Iran Ceasefire in Effect

Crude oil prices dropped over $2/barrel in Asia Tuesday after former President Trump announced a “total and complete” ceasefire between Israel and Iran, easing Strait of Hormuz concerns and shifting market focus back to fundamentals.

On June 24, Asian crude prices slid sharply—Brent fell to $69.31 and WTI to $66.39 per barrel—down over $2 each, following former President Trump’s declaration that the Israel‑Iran ceasefire was now in effect.

Trump, via social media, announced a “total and complete” ceasefire set to take hold if both nations maintained the truce. Israel confirmed the ceasefire the same morning, citing mission accomplished, though affirming readiness to respond to any violations. Iran initially denied a formal ceasefire but relented after maintaining military operations until 04:00 Tehran time.

Market Implications

• Eased Strait of Hormuz fears: With the ceasefire, concerns over Iran blocking this vital oil transit route receded, reducing the geopolitical risk premium factored into pricing .
  
• Shift to fundamentals: Analysts, including Swissquote’s Ipek Ozkardeskaya, highlighted that with tensions subsiding, oil-focused attention turns back to OPEC output plans, global demand, and overall growth — suggesting potential further weakness toward $65/barrel.
  

What’s Next

• Monitor ceasefire durability: Both Israel and Iran have promised to honor the truce but remain alert to violations. Any unrest could reintroduce premium to oil prices.
  
• Watch OPEC and demand dynamics: With geopolitical concerns fading, market drivers will pivot to supply adjustments by OPEC and evolving global economic trends, which may challenge oil’s mid‑year bearish run.

Oil markets reacted swiftly to a thaw in Middle East tensions, price dropping over $2 as the ceasefire reduced fears of regional disruption. Now, fundamentals take center stage—even as the truce remains fragile