As the Middle East conflict continues to disrupt global markets, Pakistan’s agricultural input security has once again been exposed to risk, particularly in the fertiliser sector. According to an editorial in Dawn, while the country’s domestic capacity for urea production has so far insulated farmers from severe price shocks, a critical vulnerability persists in the supply of di-ammonium phosphate (DAP) — an essential fertiliser for early crop development.
Pakistan’s urea industry has been largely resilient because local production and stockpiles — supported by established manufacturing infrastructure — have helped farmers maintain fertiliser use without drastic cuts, thereby protecting yields and preventing escalation in food inflation. However, DAP presents a different challenge. Domestically, Pakistan produces only about 0.7 million tonnes of DAP annually, whereas total annual requirements exceed 2 million tonnes, leaving the vast majority of supply dependent on imports. Under current geopolitical strains, this import reliance has become a strategic weakness.
With global supply chains tightening, price volatility and logistics bottlenecks in imported fertilisers are already putting upward pressure on landed costs. The situation is compounded by broader international trends: major exporters such as China have imposed restrictions on fertiliser exports to prioritise domestic food security, even as global shipments face disruptions from conflict-related trade uncertainties. International urea prices have surged — in some markets by around 30–40% — adding to production cost pressures for farmers globally.
The editorial highlights that a sustained shortfall in DAP availability could force farmers to under-apply key nutrients or substitute with less effective alternatives, which would likely diminish crop productivity, erode farm incomes, and ultimately undermine food security. Ensuring an uninterrupted gas supply to Pakistan’s existing DAP plant is identified as a near-term priority, but the piece also urges policymakers to reconsider the broader incentive and capacity expansion framework to reduce import dependence over time.
In this context, the fertiliser sector — which plays a pivotal role in supporting Pakistan’s agrarian economy — continues to navigate structural challenges, including energy-linked production costs and global market tensions. Strengthening domestic production and diversifying supply sources are emerging as key strategic imperatives to safeguard agricultural sustainability amid ongoing external pressures.
